Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 31.57 | 26.06 | 5.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | 22.36 | 26.20 | -3.80 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 21.12 | 22.83 | -1.70 |
| Geelong Cats | 20.28 | 26.75 | -6.50 |
| Adelaide Crows | 17.34 | 15.32 | 2.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 16.95 | 10.24 | 6.70 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 10.94 | 6.56 | 4.40 |
| Collingwood | 10.89 | 11.76 | -0.90 |
| Sydney Swans | 8.70 | 0.56 | 8.10 |
| GWS Giants | 4.07 | 9.54 | -5.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | 0.91 | 1.64 | -0.70 |
| St Kilda Saints | -6.47 | -7.63 | 1.20 |
| Carlton Blues | -10.81 | -4.77 | -6.00 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -17.39 | -14.65 | -2.70 |
| North Melbourne | -20.54 | -21.71 | 1.20 |
| Richmond Tigers | -31.57 | -29.44 | -2.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -32.19 | -27.89 | -4.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.16 | -39.36 | 5.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 26 | 68 – 60 | 15.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. GWS Giants | Mar 27 | 87 – 54 | 15.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions | Mar 28 | 80 – 113 | -15.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 28 | 103 – 43 | 52.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne | Mar 28 | 69 – 81 | -11.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 29 | 90 – 92 | 33.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 29 | 77 – 100 | -9.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood | Apr 02 | Brisbane Lions | 22.50 |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 03 | Carlton Blues | -9.70 |
| 3 | Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 03 | Adelaide Crows | 17.40 |
| 4 | Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 04 | Port Adelaide Power | -3.20 |
| 5 | West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 04 | Sydney Swans | -31.90 |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 05 | Gold Coast Suns | -5.00 |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 05 | Western Bulldogs | 63.80 |
| 8 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 06 | Hawthorn Hawks | 11.80 |
The post AFL Predictions for Week 5 first appeared on Stats Chat.