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Monday links: a founding myth

Markets

  • A look at forward P/E ratios. (econbrowser.com)
  • The flight-to-safety trade hasn't worked in March. (axios.com)

Prediction markets

  • Don't hold your breath that anyone will be held accountable for recent insider trading. (newyorker.com)
  • What if prediction markets had existed before D-Day? (spencerjakab.substack.com)

Private credit

  • How private credit industry got here. (giftarticle.ft.com)
  • For private credit funds, how you define software matters. (wsj.com)

Finance

  • PE continuation vehicles were once a stopgap. Now they are mainstream. (cashandcarried.substack.com)
  • Do retail investors care about tokenization? (observer.com)

SpaceX

  • How the SpaceX IPO is different. (axios.com)
  • SpaceX is betting on retail investor participation. (cnbc.com)

Technology

  • The Neo is a huge hit, for good reason. (pogueman.substack.com)
  • Paid Claude users are soaring. (techcrunch.com)
  • RIP, Sora. (wsj.com)

Business

  • Last Vegas' economy is struggling. (nytimes.com)
  • Cold-storage vacancy rates are on the rise. (wsj.com)

Iran

  • War with Iran is increasingly looking like a long-term proposition. (danieldrezner.substack.com)
  • We don't really know how the war in Iran is going. (theomission26.substack.com)
  • Why cultural knowledge of your enemy matters. (nytimes.com)

Earlier on Abnormal Returns

  • Adviser links: gifting business interests. (abnormalreturns.com)
  • Making peace with your inner critic. (abnormalreturns.com)
  • Friction rules the world around us. (abnormalreturns.com)
  • A repudiation of its values. (abnormalreturns.com)
  • What you missed in our Sunday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
  • Top clicks last week on Abnormal Returns. (abnormalreturns.com)
  • Don't miss a thing! Sign up for our daily e-mail newsletter. (abnormalreturns.com)

Mixed media

  • The Iran war has showed the world the fragility of the natural gas system. (nytimes.com)
  • Gulf air traffic has rebounded but is still well below pre-war levels. (semafor.com)
  • How the Iran war is hitting California farmers. (msn.com)
  • Fertilizer costs are up around the world. (ft.com)