Team Ratings for Week 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 11.18 | 12.36 | -1.20 |
| Hurricanes | 11.16 | 8.29 | 2.90 |
| Blues | 9.86 | 8.91 | 1.00 |
| Crusaders | 7.74 | 8.41 | -0.70 |
| Brumbies | 5.86 | 5.59 | 0.30 |
| Reds | 1.16 | 1.74 | -0.60 |
| Highlanders | -3.03 | -3.06 | 0.00 |
| Waratahs | -4.66 | -5.84 | 1.20 |
| Western Force | -5.70 | -6.29 | 0.60 |
| Fijian Drua | -7.95 | -7.64 | -0.30 |
| Moana Pasifika | -11.03 | -7.88 | -3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 35 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders | Mar 27 | 19 – 39 | -1.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Waratahs | Mar 27 | 28 – 30 | 17.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Reds | Mar 28 | 52 – 14 | 11.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Blues vs. Fijian Drua | Mar 28 | 40 – 15 | 20.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Western Force vs. Chiefs | Mar 28 | 14 – 24 | -13.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 8
Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua | Apr 03 | Crusaders | 19.20 |
| 2 | Chiefs vs. Waratahs | Apr 04 | Chiefs | 19.30 |
| 3 | Reds vs. Western Force | Apr 04 | Reds | 11.90 |
The post Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8 first appeared on Stats Chat.