Team Ratings for Week 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glasgow | 8.61 | 6.18 | 2.40 |
| Leinster | 8.25 | 13.41 | -5.20 |
| Bulls | 7.78 | 8.86 | -1.10 |
| Stormers | 6.32 | 4.17 | 2.20 |
| Lions | 1.89 | -1.19 | 3.10 |
| Ulster | 1.87 | -3.24 | 5.10 |
| Munster | 0.85 | 3.65 | -2.80 |
| Sharks | 0.22 | 1.29 | -1.10 |
| Connacht | -0.25 | -1.39 | 1.10 |
| Edinburgh | -2.03 | 2.67 | -4.70 |
| Scarlets | -2.10 | -0.54 | -1.60 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -2.39 | -2.74 | 0.30 |
| Ospreys | -2.62 | -2.15 | -0.50 |
| Benetton | -4.56 | -2.32 | -2.20 |
| Dragons | -8.89 | -15.66 | 6.80 |
| Zebre | -12.93 | -11.02 | -1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 112 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby | Mar 28 | 21 – 15 | 10.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Glasgow vs. Benetton | Mar 28 | 31 – 10 | 19.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leinster vs. Scarlets | Mar 28 | 36 – 19 | 17.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Munster | Mar 29 | 34 – 31 | 15.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Connacht vs. Ospreys | Mar 29 | 21 – 14 | 10.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Lions vs. Dragons | Mar 29 | 42 – 26 | 18.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stormers vs. Edinburgh | Mar 29 | 33 – 14 | 14.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Zebre vs. Ulster | Mar 29 | 12 – 28 | -6.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 15
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Bulls | Apr 18 | Bulls | -9.70 |
| 2 | Edinburgh vs. Zebre | Apr 18 | Edinburgh | 17.90 |
| 3 | Ulster vs. Leinster | Apr 18 | Leinster | -4.40 |
| 4 | Stormers vs. Connacht | Apr 18 | Stormers | 13.60 |
| 5 | Lions vs. Glasgow | Apr 19 | Lions | 0.30 |
| 6 | Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby | Apr 19 | Scarlets | 2.30 |
| 7 | Benetton vs. Munster | Apr 19 | Benetton | 1.60 |
| 8 | Ospreys vs. Sharks | Apr 19 | Ospreys | 4.20 |
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